The 2011 Warwick Stakes is only a day away and already it’s probably been the best betting race all year.
Bookmakers are reporting a mountain of money flowing through at the early fixed price odds with punters looking to score a bargain at odds well over valued.
The main reason bookies have been caught off guard is that the weather conditions around Sydney did not improve as expected.
That’s all but guaranteed a heavy track tomorrow at Warwick Farm and thrown apart the markets from where they first opened.
The main beneficiary of the money has been the sole mare in the race Sacred Choice.
She’s proven herself across the heavy stuff and she’s done it at the top level as recently as this year when she won the Doncaster across bottomless turf at Randwick.
She’s also one of probably only half the field which are suited to the 1400m and she has a 2kg advantage off most of the others.
She does have an awkward barrier in gate 10 but punters seem to have overlooked that in a case of limiting the unknowns.
She definitely has the class, she definitely has the trip and she can definitely handle the track, the only real query being how fit is she first up for the spring?
It is a big question sure, but when you compare that to some of the queries about the other horses she almost looks like a sure thing.
Some punters believe that and her fixed price quote on Luxbet has been crunched from eight dollars right into $6.00.
The more the rain falls the more that’s likely to continue as well with no other genuine wet track specialist in the field.
That is with the exception of Hawk Island but he has one of the biggest unknowns in the race.
Not only is he unsuited to the distance, he’s also first up after a nasty fall which occurred in the Sydney Cup.
That’s reflected by his quote and you’d be a game man to pick up the $51 being offered right now at Luxbet.
Let’s look through the field then and see just which horses are in the best shape for the 2011 Warwick Stakes and see how they stack up on class, distance, track conditions and fitness.
2011 Warwick Stakes Form Guide
Black Piranha: $12 at Luxbet
He’s probably the distance specialist of this race and his class in undoubted with two Stradbroke Handicap titles. He’s capable on heavy ground as well but there must be a query on how much the old boy still has in the tank.
Centennial Park: $11 at Luxbet
Fitness is his strong point as he’s well into his prep and he’s also started 17 races at this distance. The question for him is in terms of class and the heavy track probably won’t assist him.
Hawk Island: $51 at Luxbet
As has been said he’s a classy horse but that’s at a bigger trip. He’ll cover the ground no problems but it’s a wait and see game after that fall.
Maluckyday: $17 at Luxbet
You don’t need to be an expert to know the 1400m is the query and also that he’ll be underdone first up. Class is well and truly on his side and he’s never started on a heavy surface.
He’s the market favourite because he’s fit and in form and he can run the trip. He’s got a bit of class about him too and can handle the wet, that’s why he’s your favourite.
Gathering: $13 at Luxbet
Another which could thrive on the heavy and is far from a mug over the 1400m. If he gets in front he could be hard to run down providing he’s fit enough first up.
Triple Elegance: $6.50 at Luxbet
A gun at the trip and as classy as any, but just how fit is he in his first up run? Has won a race over the heavy and is in this contest up to his ears.
Trusting: $19 at Luxbet
Last win was over 1400m but that was in August of 2009. Really needs to score a win this prep to prove his class as a stallion, never started on heavy ground.
Ironstein: $101 at Luxbet
He’s your roughie of the field because he needs longer than this trip. While he might handle the wet the distance rules him out regardless.
Ilovethiscity: $4.60 at Luxbet
Comes into equal favourite after being passed fit by the vets but will need to overcome the wet surface which may be against him. Has the class to win and will run the trip but heavy the query.
Shootoff: $21 at Luxbet
Really good horse but has never won over 1400m and that might be the killer. Ok in the heavy but not ideal, should ahve a bit of residual fitness after short spell though.
Startsmeup: $26 at Luxbet
Could well be the best positioned in terms of his fitness coming into this third up and the 1400m is perfect. Heavy a question and so to the gate, player at big odds.
Sacred Choice: $6.00 at Luxbet
Ticks all the boxes except the unknown, how well will she go first up? Punters are backing her in on faith and time will tell how right they are.